A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
