Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
